After Covid, the massive EU Recovery Plan aimed to support investment activity through grants and loans at close-to-zero interest rates on expectations that it would boost the economy and enhance potential growth. Meanwhile, the ECB heavily bought government bonds, and interest rates were below zero. Debt sustainability analysis was de facto suspended, and financial markets were under anaesthetics. But then the conflict in Ukraine, the related spike in inflation, and the turn in the interest rate cycle changed the situation. The fundamental drivers of debt sustainability are back. Higher interest rates, lower economic growth and the need for fiscal support for cyclical and structural reasons may push debt dynamics into bad equilibrium. We look at the Italian situation.
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